Would you rather be nearly saved or nearly drowned?

“Would you rather be nearly saved or nearly drowned?” was a common riddle children would ask each other when I was growing up. As I certainly didn’t want to nearly drown I remember answering that of course I wanted to be nearly saved – instinctively that felt like a safer bet.
Educational humourous and serious cartoon

“Would you rather be nearly saved or nearly drowned?” was a common riddle children would ask each other when I was growing up. As I certainly didn’t want to nearly drown I remember answering that of course I wanted to be nearly saved – instinctively that felt like a safer bet. Soon enough I would learn that it is in fact much better to nearly be drowned than nearly saved because of course being nearly saved means that you will have drowned, and being nearly drowned means that you will have survived somehow.

As a child I would be annoyed when I failed to answer such a riddle correctly, but understand now that early failures like that are inexpensive learning opportunities that can help us develop wisdom for real-life decisions that we will have to make later on.

Educational humourous and serious cartoon
Would you rather be nearly saved or nearly drowned?

There is an analogy here with many people’s perception of the usefulness and safety of the Covid-19 vaccines on offer (or mandated depending where you live and your occupation). Most people have a very favourable view of vaccines in general, and by association this view is often transferred to the new vaccines. Of course I believe that each new product has to stand on its own merits as I discuss in the earlier article “Even good things can be done badly“.

The very short term results posted by Pfizer at the start of their landmark double-blind trial indicated that their vaccine reduced Covid-19 symptoms in the cohort that received it in comparison to the control group, who got a placebo. That sounds good, but measuring one short-term effect is not a full appraisal of the full effects of a product. After a year of Covid-19 vaccinations, we now have some idea of the potential short-to-medium term side-effects, and there are many examples of people dying or becoming very sick from them.

Adverse Drug Reactions (ADRs)

There are various state-run databases where suspected adverse drug reactions can be reported. After deleting suspected duplicate entries, the WHO collates these reports into one database at their own ADR website: http://vigiaccess.org/

The various reporting systems are passive, in that it is up to citizens or conscientious doctors to report suspected side-effects. With such systems we can expect severe under-reporting. Even if one were to believe, for whatever reason, that there are a substantial number of people somehow successfully reporting spurious ADRs from vaccines, we can still gauge relative safety between vaccines.

From the WHO Vigiaccess website I compiled the ADRs for some of the most common, well known and used vaccines as listed here and here by the American Centre for Disease Control (CDC) and graphed them against the ADRs for Covid-19 vaccines in 2021. They are the most used vaccines in the USA for people aged up to 18yrs old, and some such as the flu vaccine are used by people of all ages.

Graph A: source data from vigiaccess.org

You might notice that this chart compares only one year’s worth of Covid-19 vaccine ADRs to many decades of other vaccine ADRs.

Graph B: Source Data from vigiaccess.org

In this graph I compared the number of Covid-19 vaccine ADRs for 2021 to the combined total of the 2021 ADRs for the other vaccines in Graph A above.

The Covid-19 genetic vaccines are off the scale in terms of risk even with the most generous of comparisons.

I would be surprised to find anyone who cold see these graphs and still think that the genetic Covid-19 vaccines are safe. But even accepting that they are more dangerous than normal vaccines, how do we judge the risk of Covid-19 without being vaccinated? Are you safer overall being vaccinated to Covid-19 or not?

All-Cause Mortality

If we happen to pick up a SARS-CoV-2 infection, whether we develop mild, moderate or severe Covid symptoms (or none at all) is important in the short term, however in the grand scheme of things it is secondary to whether our overall health improves or deteriorates in the medium and long term. After weighing up the risk-benefit, we take medicines to improve or maintain our health in general and live longer healthier lives. For this reason a very important measurement of the usefulness of a new medicine is the difference in all-cause mortality between similar populations of those who have taken a medication and those who have not. This is a critical safety measurement and will account not just for the vaccine effect on Covid related deaths but also for any fatal side-effects brought about by the vaccine, and the chances of getting a SARS-CoV-2 infection and developing symptoms in the first place.

In the Pfizer six-month study results released in July 2021 we have such a measurement, albeit for only a short period. The plan was to run the trial for three years but they actually un-blinded it only two months after the administration of their injections. The study is available here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261159v1.supplementary-material

The all-cause mortality count is available as Table S4 on page 12 of an appendix to the study. If you click the link above you can follow the steps #1 and #2 on the image below to navigate and download that appendix:

How to Navigate to Pfizer 6 month all cause mortality data

The results speak for themselves – see table S4 reproduced below:

All cause mortality after 6 months in trial populations as reported by Pfizer July 2021

Unfortunately the bottom line is that after two months fifteen people had died in the vaccine group compared to just fourteen in the control group, and worryingly there were four deaths reported by cardiac arrest in the vaccinated group compared to just one in the control group.

It should go without saying that this is not a sound basis for approving a supposedly life-saving medicine.

It gets worse. After unblinding (after just two months of what was supposed to be a three year trial), the control group were offered to become vaccinated and most took up the offer. There were then another 5 deaths in the now larger vaccinated group – 3 more from the original vaccinated cohort and 2 from the newly vaccinated people who crossed over from the placebo group. This is illustrated very well by the Canadian Covid Care Alliance presentation slide reproduced below: (read on for more on their must-see presentation and stunning video).

More died in the vaccinated group than the placebo group. Credit: canadian Covid care alliance

FDA: Same same, but different

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in the USA published a paper appraising the Pfizer six month review called “Summary Basis for Regulatory Action” document dated Nov 8 2021: https://www.fda.gov/media/151733/download

Strangely however, they have different all cause mortality tallies than Pfizer reported in July. On page 23 they say that there were 21 deaths in the vaccine group and 17 deaths in the placebo group – see reproduction below.

All cause mortality after 6 months in trial populations as reported by FDA Nov 2021

Neither the Pfizer figures nor the FDA figures are good news for the Pfizer product. In terms of all cause mortality, which accounts for the chances of contracting deadly viruses and both positive and negative effects of the vaccine, the placebo group fared better.

Risk Stratification

Even though the adults’ Pfizer trial discussed above had a median age of 51 years old, the placebo group (unvaccinated) had a better chance of survival.

When we consider using these products on children we must also account for risk stratification by age and health – the risk of death with Covid exponentially decreases the younger and healthier one is. This is depicted in the following graph I made of all cause mortality in Ireland for 2020 using data from the Irish Central Statistics Office:

All cause mortality in ireland 2020. data source: CSO.ie

The Covid toll is highlighted in the image above.There were zero deaths in Ireland in anyone under 25 years old with or suspected of being with Covid in 2020.

Graphing just Covid-confirmed cases we get to see that the Covid risk-stratification has an exponential relationship to age. These graphs were originally published in the earlier articles Pandemrix Déjà vu and What is the purpose of your journey?

Total confirmed Covid related Deaths in Ireland up to end of April 2021.
source data: cso.ie

There were actually six Covid-confirmed deaths in the 25 to 44 age bracket recorded in Ireland in the period but I would have had to make this graph extremely tall for them to become visible here. The point is that if we use the current genetic therapy vaccines on the young and healthy we expose them to all of the known and unknown risks that come with them and virtually no benefits. Children are at an exponentially smaller risk from Covid in the first place than for example the adults in the Pfizer study, who at a median age of 51 were still fared better without the vaccine…!

All cause illness

Similarly the Pfizer study shows an increase in all cause illness in the vaccinated group compared to the control group. The Canadian Covid Care Alliance have published an excellent in-depth but concise analysis of the Pfizer study. Below is a reproduction concerning the Pfizer vaccine effect on illness:

Significant increase in Illness. Credit: canadian Covid care alliance

The full PDF version of that analysis is available on their website:


They have also published an excellent video of this analysis. It’s 38 minutes long and covers this subject perfectly, using Pfizer’s own data. Get it and share it here:


Here are some questions worth considering:

  • Why are people being encouraged, coerced and mandated to take a new pharmaceutical product that in its own clinical trial increased overall death and illness (and that isn’t proven to prevent transmission?)
  • Is the higher all-cause mortality and illness amongst the vaccinated found in the study being reproduced in the real world?
  • Six months is short term – what will the long term effects be, especially after a yet-to-be-determined series of booster shots?
  • Covid-19 is risk-stratified towards the elderly and ill and poses a such a small risk to children that it is difficult to measure. Why is it being given to children?
  • Why do we even consider exposing and coercing children to take these shots when we know these vaccines don’t stop transmission and that even the short term risks outweigh the benefits?
  • Would you rather be nearly saved or nearly drowned?!

Please share this post with people you think may benefit from these perspectives. Especially the 38 minute Canadian Covid Care Alliance video! which I think is stunning.